Saturday, March 5, 2011

"Coattails": A Political Reality in Virginia 2012

The U.S. Senate seats have a term of 6 years. What this means in Virgina is that every presidential election cycle will also include one of our U.S. Senate seats. In 2008, it was the seat that is now held by Sen. Mark Warner (D). Why is this important? Well as Larry Sabato has stated "Without a doubt, it is the tight Senate contests that can be most affected by the top of the ticket." And by top ticket he means who ever wins the presidential election for the state.

Since the announcement of Senator Jim Webb not to seek re-election this puts a new sense of urgency for the Republicans to come up with a strong candidate. The reason, Obama is still polling strong in Virginia and the possibility that Former Gov. and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine will be the likely choice for the Democrat Nominee. Right now the Republican candidates that have announced are George Allen, Jamie Radtke and Davide McCormick. George Allen has the edge polling at 67%. While some argue it is because of his name recognition, which is true, he also has a voting record and experience as a legislator. But all of this is beside the point.

The point we need to understand, we need strong presidential candidates for there to be "coattails" to ride. Not that it is the ONLY factor, but it does not hurt. Larry Sabato, also, noted:

Other than Nelson in Nebraska, there are quite a few 2012 contests almost certain to be substantially influenced by the downdraft from the presidential race, including but not restricted to Florida (Sen. Bill Nelson-D), Massachusetts (Sen. Scott Brown-R), Missouri (Sen. Claire McCaskill-D), Montana (Sen. Jon Tester-D), Nevada (Sen. John Ensign-R), North Dakota (open seat of Sen. Kent Conrad-D), Ohio (Sen. Sherrod Brown-D), and Virginia (open seat of Sen. Jim Webb-D).

My concern at this point, there is no front runner, yes I know we are still two years out, but President Obama has never stopped campaigning and has kept many of his promises... as in "energy cost will necessary skyrocket". And as absurd as it sounds to most conservatives, he WAS elected and he WON Virginia.

The good news, we won't have to relive a Allen-Webb rematch, the bad news Obama is still president.

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